CPI at 08:30 — you knew that. What no calendar publishes is what gold did in the fifteen minutes after each one. One of those numbers is worth sizing around. The other is close enough to a coin flip that acting on it is guessing.
THE 8 RELEASES THAT MOVE GOLD ↓Every calendar tells you when they print. We measure what gold did after every one — how far, how fast, and whether it followed the surprise — so you know which prints to stand aside for before the next one lands.
Every calendar on the internet publishes the same three things: the time, the consensus, and an impact icon somebody assigned by reputation. None of them go back afterwards and measure what the price did.
So "high impact" means whatever a vendor decided it means. Crude oil inventories carries a red flag almost everywhere. For gold it barely registers. Meanwhile FOMC minutes — a release with no consensus figure at all, nothing to be surprised by — is among the largest movers on the calendar.
That gap is the entire product. We measure every red-flag release against the window that followed it, publish the result to members whether or not it flatters us, and let the flags become an output of the data rather than an opinion about which events sound important.
Every input is measured before it is allowed to matter. A concept that does not hold up against the record does not reach a level, however widely it is taught. That filter is the work — and it is why the numbers members see are smaller and steadier than the ones you will see quoted elsewhere.
Seven series from the Federal Reserve's FRED database — daily and monthly — in one place, with what each one means for gold.
Reading the Federal Reserve series.
Every figure here is pulled from FRED, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The series ID sits beside each one so you can check it at the source — we are not asking you to take our word for the data, only for the reading.
Start with the thing that makes gold different from everything else on a screen. It pays you nothing. A bond pays a coupon. A stock pays a dividend or retains earnings. Cash in a money market pays overnight. Gold sits there.
So the question is never "is gold going up." It is what did you give up to hold it — and what you gave up is the yield you could have earned instead, adjusted for what inflation will do to that yield. That is the real interest rate.
Now the useful part. Every release on this page matters only insofar as it moves one of those two terms. Not because it is important-sounding. Not because a calendar gave it three stars. Because it changed the nominal rate the market expects, or it changed what inflation is expected to do to that rate.
Once you hold that, a thing that looks like a contradiction stops being one. Gold routinely falls on a high inflation print. If CPI came in hot but below what economists forecast, inflation expectations come down — real rates rise — and the mechanism runs the opposite way to the headline. The number went up. The expectation went down. The expectation is what was priced.
Which is the second thing worth internalising: markets price the expectation, not the number. By the time a release lands, the consensus is already in the price. The only new information is the gap between what arrived and what was expected — the surprise — and that is the single most useful field on any calendar.
Why we keep repeating this: almost every mistake people make around economic data comes from trading the number instead of the deviation. It is the same error in eight different costumes, and each release page shows you the costume it wears for that release.
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This table writes itself. Every release is recorded the moment it prints, with its actual, consensus and previous figures. No row is added by hand and none is removed. Members also see what gold did next — and the rows that contradict us stay in their record too.
Each one is a real situation where the intuitive answer and the correct one come apart.
Every answer explains itself the moment you pick — right or wrong. The score is not the point; the explanation is. Free, and the daily read comes with it.
TAKE THE ECONOMIC READ TEST →Or start with how you trade rather than what you know — what kind of trader are you, five questions.
Every red-flag release gets measured. The live gold price, engine status and today's calendar are free at today's read.
◆ @ONLYGOLDFANSHQEntry, invalidation, targets and risk-to-reward — published before the open, graded against the close, wins and losses alike. On release days, a preview thirty minutes ahead and a measured result once the window closes.
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